Forecasting U.S. Firearm Stock Growth by 2034

Dave Humphreys, led a study estimating the growth of the U.S. civilian firearm stock, projecting an increase from 378 million firearms in 2022 to 565 million by 2034 under current trends. The study, published in JAMA Network Open, highlights how modest increases in firearm attrition rates (from 1% to 3%) could reduce the stock by over 115 million.

Improved infrastructure, such as enhanced buyback programs and services for unwanted firearm disposal, may help mitigate the risks associated with this growing stockpile. Read more: Full Study.